The Red Sea is a narrow inland sea corridor between the Arabian Peninsula and Africa. It extends southeast from Suez at Egypt for about 2,000 km to the Strait of Mandeb which connects with the Gulf of Aden and then with the Arabian Sea. It separates the coasts of Egypt, Sudan and Eritrea in Africa from those of Saudi Arabia and Yemen in West Asia.

According to Encyclopaedia Britannica, the name Red Sea is derived from the colour changes observed in its waters. The Red Sea, at present, is under great turmoil. The crisis began in October 2023 when Yemen’s Houthi movement initiated a series of attacks targeting southern Israel and ships in the Red Sea that it claimed were linked to Israel. The Houthi movement, aligned with Hamas, launched attacks on Israel employing missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles.

However, ships with no apparent links to Israel were also targeted. Indian merchant vessels have also not been spared. Houthi militants had fired on merchant vessels of various countries in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen, in the Bab-el- Mandeb Strait, a chokepoint of the global economy. According to reports, the blockade and attack have resulted in hundreds of cargo ships and tankers being rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, the southern tip of Africa to avoid attacks in the Red Sea. This has the inevitable effect of rise in transportation costs and insurance liability for ships, adversely affecting international trade and commerce and causing destination delays. According to the Global Trade Research Institute (GTRI), the Red Sea crisis may push shipping costs by 60 per cent, insurance premium by 20 per cent and delay due to rerouting by 20 days.

The delay may also cause potential cargo loss from piracy and attacks. Piracy attacks have also increased in recent months. It is reported in the press that the disruption of the Red Sea shipping lanes due to the Houthi conflict has significantly impacted Indian trade with the Middle East, Africa and Europe. India is heavily reliant on the Bab-el- Mandeb Strait for crude oil and LNG imports. Overall merchandise trade with these key regions has faced substantial economic and security risks from disruption in the Red Sea corridor. It is also reported that the Red Sea route accounts for 50 per cent of the country’s exports and 30 per cent of imports.

The country’s overall merchandise trade was about Rs 100 lakh crore in 2022-23, last fiscal, with 70 per cent in value and 95 per cent in volume being seaborne. The conflict has necessitated India to consider the alternative longer route of Cape of Good Hope which would lead to increased energy costs and of other commodities creating an adverse fall out on India’s international trade. The Houthi movement is a Shi’ite militant organisation that controls a large part of northern Yemen along with the Red Sea littoral. It is supported and funded by Iran. The state of Yemen has been embroiled in civil war for more than a decade and the Houthis have an important role to play in the escalation of civil war in this West Asian country.

Following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war, Iranian supported militant groups across West Asia including the Houthis, expressed support for the Palestinians. In order to end attacks in the Red Sea, the Houthis demanded a ceasefire in Gaza and an end to Israel’s blockade of the Gaza Strip. In political and diplomatic circles, the Red Sea crisis is also known as the United States-Iran proxy war. The Houthis are in alliance with the Axis of Resistance, an informal anti-Israel and anti-Western political and military coalition led by the Iranian government. It includes the Syrian Arab Republic, Lebanese Shia militant group Hezbollah, Hamas of Gaza and various other militant groups in Palestine. Hamas, the Islamic Resistance movement, is the largest and most capable militant group in the Palestine territories. The Red Sea connects the Indian Ocean with the Mediterranean Sea through the Suez Canal. It is one of the most heavily travelled waterways in the world carrying traffic between Europe and Asia. Before the Suez Canal was opened for traffic in 1869, merchant and commercial vessels had to travel between Europe and Asia through the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa. The Suez Canal reduced the distance, cost and time to a considerable extent for the shipping industry. In a year, some 30,000 vessels use the canal, with the tanker trade, specially very large and ultra large crude carriers (VLCC and ULCC) being the most lucrative for Egypt’s economy. The income from the canal is the major source of revenue after tourism for the government of Egypt. To accommodate these large carriers, the canal has been widened, deepened and furnished with every modern aid to safety and speed.

When it was opened, the canal had a draught of 26 ft. Today it is more than 70 ft. This is a stupendous development. Savings in distance, time and transport cost have a major influence in planning the shipping world. Access to the Suez Canal remains very important because it is a transit route and a superhighway for oil from the Persian Gulf. For naval ships cruising between the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean, the highway is of great strategic importance. The present geo-political scene around the Suez is unstable due to uninterrupted piracy in Somali waters near the Gulf of Aden and the situation in West Asia caused by the IsraelHamas war.

The crisis has adversely affected world trade and commerce. Prosperity Garden is a USled international military operation by a multinational coalition formed in December 2023 to respond to Houthi-led attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. The coalition currently has more than twenty members of which ten are anonymously involved. The known members are Britain, Bahrain, Canada and Norway. France, Italy and Spain have declined to participate. Egypt and Saudi Arabia, both economically reliant on unhindered commercial shipping in the Red Sea-Suez corridor are absent from the listed participants.

The new military alliance is not free of problems. As Yemen is an Arab state, no other Arabian country will like to attack it. Many of these new alliance partners will not like to join a conflict posturing as supporters of Israel. They will also like to refrain from serious conflict in West Asia that is funded, supported, assisted and strategized covertly or overtly by Iran. The Suez Canal Authority has reported that navigation traffic in the Suez Canal has not so far been affected by what is happening in the Red Sea. However, on 10 January 2024, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution demanding a cessation of Houthi attacks on merchant vessels. Undaunted by the resolution, the Houthis continued to launch drone and missile attacks on international ships and warships in the Red Sea. In retaliation, on 12 January, the coalition launched its first airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen. Houthis have pledged to retaliate.

The Israel-Hamas War and the Houthi onslaught on the Red Sea–Suez corridor have brought a dangerous turmoil in the geopolitical scenario at the beginning of 2024. It is not only West Asia that is affected. The geo-political scenario has wider repercussions. Globalisation has brought the world closer and made nations interdependent. Commerce and international trade has to flow to its destinations in a short time. The Suez Canal is a point in the global sea route between the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean.

The access to the canal cannot be compromised at any cost. The Red Sea will remain a veritable and inevitable geopolitical hot spot for the world for 2024. It may trigger larger confrontation and conflict. It is, accordingly, necessary to create and put in operation under the UN initiative a dedicated international maritime structure under a naval power for coordinating movement of ships up to Aden or Bab-el- Mandeb for their entry to the Red Sea and smooth passage to the Suez Canal. The Israel-Hamas war and the Houthi onslaught in the Red Sea are a cause of global apprehension.

(The writer is a former central civil service officer who retired from the Ministry of Defence)